Five threats, five opportunities & five don’t knows for 2015

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This is a rather more wide-ranging post than usual. So I would really welcome comments. What have I missed or messed up? I tried the same idea previously here.

FIVE THREATS

The UK economy
The UK and USA economies are currently growing strongly. Europe is not. There’s scope for a Eurozone crisis (Greece?) or sovereign debt crisis (Russia with possibly a 4% reduction in real GNP in 2015?). A potential EC referendum in 2017 will create uncertainty.

Financial risk
We have made progress in understanding risk and lessening the banking rewards that distort behaviour. But the Co-operative Bank recently failed its stress tests. Interest rates will eventually rise and speculation in housing market will be affected.

Information Technology
Our reliance on IT for intelligence, defence, security, “smart things” and communication makes us fragile. Recent breaches on game consoles are the tip of the iceberg. We still over rely on “experts”, talking “gobbledegook”.

Limitations of military power
The USA and UK have struggled to deploy hard power in Afghanistan, Syria and elsewhere. Take Afghanistan: Life expectancy has increased by 10 years, 7 million more are in school, there’s democracy. But the Taliban are still there, along with corruption, loss of many lives, many injuries and stated cost to Britain of £37bn.

Projects and waste
Major projects continue to go wrong – including rail over Xmas. We do not seem to learn.
We also continue to waste food, utilities, water and fuel. Some people starve; others are obese. Some people have no choices; others have suffer from having too many choices.

FIVE OPPORTUNITIES

More tolerance
We have become more tolerant of diversity, (but not of immigrants?). Some symbols of this are same sex marriages, more awareness of transgender rights and “casual dating”.

Fluid central government in the UK
The May 7 2015 General Election in the UK is difficult to call. There are now four minority parties – SNP, UKIP (who won two parliamentary seats in 2014), Liberal Democrats and Greens. All have a chance of joining Conservatives or Labour in power. Political brands will be diluted in coalition conflicts and teamwork will become vital.

Devolution
The trend is for new independent countries – from roughly 60 countries at the end of the second world war to roughly 200 now. The Scottish “No” vote was just a blip on this trend. Large cities and conurbations will also get more powers.

Always on & everything connects
Web, social media, mobiles and international travel are changing information, power and relationships by reducing barriers to entry, sharing information more fairly and making it more difficult for dictators to hide. The downside is stress, “email exhaustion“, and potential for spread of disease like Ebola.

Small societies
The “Big Society” never took off; but many “small societies” have – such as sports clubs, bridge, yoga, “Friends of”, University of the Third Age.

FIVE DON’T KNOWS

Collapse of cash
I used to find it surprising when people paid for a McDonalds meal by card. Now the growth of PayPal, digital currencies is supplanting cash.

Celebrity Syndrome
Our obsession with celebrity continues. This can create role models or entertainment (2.4mn likes on Instagram for Kim Kashadian wedding pictures). But it’s dangerous when people copy over thin or photo shopped images.

Globalisation
We know the world is flat but the full impact of international competition for services, including professional services, is still to come.

Deflation
The price of imported foodstuffs and oil has fallen (crude oil prices by roughly half in 2014). The impacts on Russia, Saudi Arabia and potentially shale gas in the USA are significant.

Hard v soft skills
Are we becoming a world in which “hard” skills (maths, coding, social media) dominate over “soft” skills” (people, relationships, persuading)? Surely we need a better balance of both?

UPDATE: 09012015
Opportunities. Fluid central government: This is reflected in the discussion about how many parties should take part in televised debates – 4 or 5 (or more) reflects this.
Threats: I didn’t mention the gap between the really wealthy and others – it’s reflected in comments by John Gelmini.

Images from mashsteak.com & info@getbodyfit.co.uk & facebook.com/the Martial Arts Project (MAP)